Consumer prices - March 2023

In March 2023 the rate of change of the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) was -0.4% on monthly basis and +7.6% on annual basis (from +9.1% in February); the flash estimate was +7.7%.

The slowdown in inflation was mainly due to the deceleration of the prices of non-regulated energy goods (from +40.8% to +18.9%) and to the accentuated decline in those of regulated energy (from -16.4% to -20.3%). On the contrary, an upward contribution to the inflation rate came from the prices of unprocessed food (from +8.7% to +9.1%), services relating to housing (from +3.3% to +3.5%), tobacco (from +1.8% to +2.5%) and those of services related to recreation including repair and personal care (from +6.1% to +6.3%).

The core inflation (all-items excluding energy and unprocessed food) was +6.3% and the annual rate of change of the all-items index excluding energy was +6.4%, both stable compared to the previous month.

The annual rate of change of prices of goods was +9.7% (from +12.4% in February) and that of prices of services was +4.5% (from +4.4% in the previous month). As a consequence, the negative inflationary gap between services and goods decreases (from -8.0 percentage points in February to -5.2).

Prices of grocery and unprocessed food increased by +0.7% on monthly basis and by +12.6% on annual basis (down from +12.7% in the previous month).

The month on month decrease of NIC was due to the prices of Non-regulated energy products (-9.6%) and of regulated energy products (-4.6%); at the opposite an upward effect comes from the prices of unprocesses food (+1.0%), services related to transport (+0.9%), processed food including alcohol and tobacco (+0.7% both), semi-durable goods (+0.5%), non-durable goods and services related to recreation, including repair and personal care and services related to housing (all three +0.3%).

In March 2023, the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.8% on monthly basis, mainly due to the end of the winter sales of clothing and footwear (not considered by NIC); as a result, the annual rate of change of the Italian HICP was 8.1% (from +9.8% in February); the flash estimate was +8.2%.

In the first quarter of 2023, inflation measured by HICP had a wider impact on the sub-population with the lowest level of equivalent expenditure than on households with highest amount of expenditure (+12.5 and +8.2% respectively).