Consumer and business confidence - January 2022

In January 2022, the consumer confidence index decreased from 117.7 to 114.2. Looking at the index components, the deterioration in confidence was particularly evident in the economic index and in the future one (they dropped, in fact, from 139.6 to 129.7 and from 120.8 to 113.5, respectively). Regarding the personal and the current components, they gradually declined passing from 110.4 to 109.0, the first and from 115.6 to 114.7, the second.

Regarding the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator)[1] shrank from 112.7 to 105.4.

The confidence climate in manufacturing worsened from 115.0 to 113.9. Particularly, compared to the previous month respondents gave less favourable opinions on both order books and future production (the related balances went down from 10.3 to 9.4 and from 18.3 to 16.7, respectively). Moreover, firms indicated an increase in the level of inventories (the balance rose from 0.6 to 1.3).

The confidence index in construction slipped from 159.1 to 158.8. In more detail, assessments on order books/construction changed for the worse (the related balance deteriorated from 5.7 to -0.4), while expectations on employment improved (the balance of the variable went up from 4.5 to 10.2).

The market services confidence slumped from 109.6 to 94.9. All the variables included in the definition of the confidence climate plummeted: the balance of the assessments on order books from 17.5 to -5.3, the one of the assessments on business trend from 11.4 to -1.3 and, finally, the one of the expectations on order books from 12.0 to 1.6.

The retail trade confidence index came in at 106.6 (compared to 107.4 in December). In particular, the opinions on current business trend gradually improved, while the expectations on future business trend slightly got worse (the related balances went from 11.9 to 12.9 the first, from 16.9 to 16.2). Lastly, the level of inventories was considered to have increased (the balance of the variable got on from -1.0 to 1.7). The breakdown of data by distribution channel showed that the confidence indicator improved in the small and medium scale distribution (from 102.7 to 107.0), but worsened in the large scale one (from 108.8 to 106.3).

[1] For a correct explanation of the evolution of the composite index (IESI) compared to the dynamics of the confidence climates at sector level, see the methodological note.