Press release

Italy’s economic outlook 2022-2023

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Italian GDP is expected to increase in 2022 (+3.9%) and then slowdown in 2023 (+0.4%).

Over the forecast horizon, the increase of GDP will be determined by the contribution of domestic demand net of inventories (+4.2 and +0.5 percentage points respectively) while net foreign demand would contribute negatively in both years (-0.5 and -0.1 percentage points). In the current year, inventories are expected to contribute positively (+0.2 p.p.) followed by a zero contribution in 2023.

Gross fixed capital formation will be the main driver of growth this year (+10.0%) and albeit to a lesser extent the next, (+2.0%). Consumption by resident households and ISPs will show a trend in line with economic activity (+3.7% and +0.4%).

Energy goods price growth will drive household consumption deflator in the current year (+8.2%), the effects of which should ease in 2023 (+5.4%).

Employment, measured in terms of FTE, will record a higher growth respect to GDP with a more pronounced increase in 2022 (+4.3%) compared to 2023 (+0.5%). The improvement in employment will be accompanied by unemployment rate which will decrease significantly this year (8.1%) and rise moderately in the following year (8.2%).

Forecast scenario is characterized by downside risks associated with further price increases, a deceleration in international trade and the persistence of a restrictive monetary policy.

Reference period: Years 2022-2023

Date of Issue: 06 December 2022



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