Italy’s Economic Outlook

GDP is expected to increase both in 2022 (+2.8%) and in 2023 (+1.9% Table 1)

In both years the increase of GDP will mainly be determined by the contribution of domestic demand (respectively +3.2 and +1.9 p.p). The net foreing demand will give a negative contribution in 2022 (-0.4 p.p) and null contribution in 2023, while inventories will provide a null contribution in the period.

Gross fixed capital formation will provide decisive support for growth with a more sustained intensity in the current year (+8.8%) than in 2023 (+4.2%).The growth of residential households consumption expenditure will be more contained (+2.3% and +1.6%).

The evolution of employment, measured in terms of FTE will be in line with the improvement in economic activity, with a more pronounced increase in 2022 (+2.5%) than in 2023 (+1.6%). Employment increases are expected to positively affect unemployment rate which would drop significantly in 2022 (8.4%) and, to a lesser extent, in 2023 (8.2%)

The upsurge of energy goods prices is expected to boost  the households consumption expenditure deflator in the current year (+5.8%) and expected to slow down in 2023 (+ 2.6%).