Consumer and business confidence - May 2022

On the release occasion of the data of May 2022 (reference month of data May 2022), the publication of the new series of the Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator (Iesi), the confidence climate index of the Italian firms, was launched. For details see the methodological note.

In May 2022, the consumer confidence index increased from 100.0 to 102.7. Particularly, looking at its components: the economic climate grew from 97.3 to 103.6, the future one rose from 98.9 to 99.8, the personal one increased from 100.9 to 102.4 and, finally, the current one progressed from 100.8 to 104.6.

Regarding the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) increased from 108.4 to 110.9.

The confidence climate in manufacturing slipped from 109.9 to 109.3. Compared to the previous month, respondents gave a less favourable assessment on order books and evaluated inventories to have risen (the related balances of the variable varied from 5.7 to 5.0 and from -0.8 to 0.3, respectively). Finally, they kept their expectations on future production unchanged (the balance held virtually stable going from 6.9 to 7.0).

The confidence index in construction shrank from 160.6 to 158.7. Overall, the interviewees became slightly more pessimistic about the assessments on order books/construction (the balance declined from 5.9 to 3.6) and did not modify their expectations on employment (the balance remained substantially stable passing from 6.2 to 6.1).

The market services confidence improved from 97.2 to 103.6, benefiting from strong optimism about both the current order books and the current business trend (the related balances got on from 0.3 to 8.6 and from -1.9 to 10.0, respectively). Slight scepticism, on the contrary, emerged from the expectations on order books (the related balance weakened, in fact, from 3.9 to 3.5).

The retail trade confidence index rose from 103.6 to 105.5. Positive developments were due to the improvement in business activity assessments (the balance of the variable varied from -3.8 to 7.0). However, the view on future sales deteriorated again and the inventories were considered to have risen (the related balances of the variables went from 19.1 to 16.8 and -2.7 to -0.2).