Consumer and business confidence - March 2022

In March 2022, the consumer confidence climate diminished from 112.4 to 100.8. The unfavourable confidence evolution is mainly due to the deterioration of both the economic and future climate (they crashed from 129.4 to 98.2 and from 116.6 to 93.5, respectively). Albeit less strong, negative signals emerged also from the other two index components: the personal climate decreased, in fact, from 106.8 to 101.7 and the current one from 109.6 to 105.7.

Regarding the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) worsened from 107.9 to 105.4.

The confidence climate in manufacturing decreased from 112.9 to 110.3. In particular, looking at the index-building variables, the assessments on order books and the expectations on future production deteriorated (the related balances passed from 8.0 to 7.6 and from 13.7 to 6.6 respectively), while the level of inventories was judged to be stable (-0.4).

The confidence index in construction slightly ameliorated from 159.7 to 160.1. In particular, the assessments on order books/construction plans went up for a second month in a row, while the expectations on employment worsened (the balance of the first variable rose from 0.5 to 2.3 whereas the one of the second lowered from 10.5 to 9.2).

The market services confidence slipped from 100.4 to 99.0. Firms reported a worsening in all the variables composing the index. As a consequence, the balance of assessments on order books slackened from 5.3 to 4.0, the one of assessments on business trend decreased from 2.8 to 0.2 and, finally, the one of expectations on order books diminished from 4.3 to 3.6.

The retail trade confidence index fell from 104.5 to 99.9. Negative indications came from the expectations and (even if to a lesser extent) from the assessments for sales, whereas inventories were considered to have diminished (the balance of the variables varied from 18.4 to 7.9, from 5.6 to 1.4 and, finally, from 3.1 to 2.5, respectively).