Italy’s Economic Outlook

In 2021 GDP is expected to increase (6.3%) followed by a deceleration in 2022 (+4.7%, Table 1).

In both years the domestic demand will provide a remarkable contribution (+6.0 and 4.4 percentage points) while foreign demand will provide a slightly contribution (+0.3 percentage points) and inventories a null contribution.

Exports and imports will growth in both years in line with the recovery of international trade (+13.2 and 7.1 for exports and 13.6 and 6.9 for import). Residential households consumption expenditure is expected to increase by 5.1 percent in 2021 and 4.8 in 2022. Investment are expected to provide a remarkable impact on the economy (+15.7% in 2021 and +7.5 in 2022).

Employment trend, in FTE terms, will follow the GDP recovery in both years (+6.1% and +4.1%) while the rate of unemployment will increase at 9.6 percent in the current year, reflecting the ricomposition between unemployed and inactive people, and decreasing in 2022 (9.3).

The households final consumption expenditure deflator will display a positive trend this year (+1.8%) and will improve the next (+2.2%).