Consumer prices

In January 2021 the rate of change of Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) was +0.7% on monthly basis and +0.4% on annual basis (from -0.2% in December); the flash estimate was +0.2%.

The trend reversal of All items index (after eight consecutive months of negative rates of change) was mainly due to the lower decreases of prices of Energy (from -7.7% in December to -4.9%), either of Regulated energy products (from -7.0% to -2.1%) and of Non-regulated energy products (from -8.1% to -6.3%), and, to a lower extent, to prices of Durable goods (from +0.6% to +1.2%) and of Services related to transport (from -0.7% to -0.1%).

Both core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) and inflation excluding energy slightly sped up to +0.8% (from +0.6% in the previous month).

The increase on monthly basis was due to prices of Regulated energy products (+4.8%), of Non-regulated energy products (+2.3%), of Durable goods (+1.0%) and of Food including alcohol (+0.8%).

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food increased by +0.7% on monthly basis and by +0.4% on annual basis (down from +0.6% in the previous month).

In January 2021 the rate of change of the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) was -0.9% with respect to the previous month and +0.7% on annual basis (from -0.3% in December); the flash estimate was +0.5%. The different dynamics on monthly basis between HICP and NIC was due to the winter sales (not considered by NIC). The diversified start of the winter sales across regions, unlike last year when they began between the 4th and the 5th of January, caused a decrease on monthly basis of prices of Clothing and footwear (-18.5%), lower than that of January 2020 (-22.7%), which reflects on the rate of change on annual basis of this expenditure division (from -0.2% in December to +5.2%) and of the all item index.

On pages 12-13 the methodological note describes the choices adopted in January and in the previous months to deal with the ongoing issues deriving from Covid-19 crisis.