Consumer and business confidence

In November 2018, the consumer confidence index worsened from 116.5 to 114.8. With regard to the individual components, the economic, current and future components diminished from 137.2 to 131.7, from 112.5 to 111.5 and from 121.4 to 118.9 respectively. The personal component slightly improved, passing from 108.7 to 108.9. The balance concerning expectations on unemployment grew from 13.4 to 22.5; while both the one regarding perceptions on inflation for the last 12 months and the one regarding expectations on inflation for the next 12 months lowered from -1.3 to -4.6 the former, and from -0.8 to -2.2, the latter.

Moving to the business confidence surveys, the composite business confidence climate index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) weakened from 102.5 to 101.1.

The confidence index in manufacturing declined from 104.9 to 104.4. Production expectations weakened (balance from 10.3 to 9), while assessments on order books and the balance on inventories remained substantially unchanged (from -7.1 to -7.2 and from 4.0 to 3.9, respectively).

The confidence index in construction depreciated from 138.9 to 132.5. Assessments on order books/construction plans and employment expectations worsened (balance from -14.5 to -17.5 and from -2 to -7.5, respectively).

The market services confidence index deteriorated from 103.6 to 101.8 All the index components changed for the worse, in particular: the balances concerning assessments and expectations on order books went down from 6.1 to 5.7 and from 5.9 to 3.7, respectively and assessments on business trend lowered (from 10.2 to 7.1).

The retail trade confidence index rose slightly from 101.6 to 102.0. The assessments on current sales bettered, while the expectations on future sales worsened (balances from 3.5 to 4.3 and from 22.9 to 19.4 respectively); finally, the assessments concerning volume of stocks diminished (from 14.4 to 10.5). The index bettered in the large scale distribution (from 101.5 to 104.0) and slightly decreased in the small and medium scale distribution (from 100.5 to 100.0).