Italy’s economic outlook 2018-2019

In 2018, GDP is expected to increase by 1.1 percent in real terms.The domestic demand will provide a contribution of 1.3 percentage points while foreign demand will account for a negative 0.2 percentage point and inventories will provide a null contribution. In 2019, GDP is estimated to increase by 1.3 percent in real terms driven by the contribution of domestic demand (1.3 percentage points) associated to a null contribution of the foreign demand and inventories.

In 2018, exports will increase by 1.6 percent and imports will grow by 2.6 percent, both are expected to accelerate in 2019 (3.2% and 3.5% respectively). Residential households consumption expenditure is expected to grow by 0.9 percent in 2018 accelerating in 2019 (1.2%). The stabilisation in employment and the wages increase will support households purchasing power. Investment are expected to progressively decelerate both in 2018 (+3.9) and in 2019 (+3.2%).

Labour market conditions will improve over the forecasting period. Employment growth is expected to stabilise at 0,9 percent in 2018 and in 2019. At the same time, the rate of unemployment will decrease at 10.5 percent in the current year and at 10.2 percent in 2019.

This projections take into account the less favourable international framework and the expansionary fiscal policies implemented in the 2018 Budget Law.