According to the median scenario, the resident population for Italy is estimated to be 59 million in 2045 and 54.1 million in 2065. The decrease compared to 2017 (60.6 million) would be 1.6 million of residents in 2045 and 6.5 million in 2065. Taking into account the variability associated with demographic events, the population estimate by 2065 ranges from a minimum of 46.4 million to a maximum of 62. The chance of a population increase scenario by 2065 is 9%.
In the median scenario, a population decline would be displayed during the whole period of projection for the regions of the South and Islands area. The population of Centre-North is projected to decrease only from 2045 onwards, achieving a positive demographic balance within the first thirty years of projection. The empirical probability that in 2065 the Centre-North will have a wider population than today is 30%, while in the South and Isles area it is null.
A population weight shifting from the South to the North areas of the country would occur. According to the median scenario, in 2065 the Centre-North would give hospitality to 71% of residents against 66% today; the South and Islands area would instead receive 29% against the current 34%.
Projected live births will not be enough to offset projected deaths. In the median scenario, the natural change reaches a value of -200 thousand after a few years of projection, it is then projected to -300 and -400 thousand, respectively, in the medium and long-term.
Fertility is projected to rise from 1.34 to 1.59 children per woman between 2017 and 2065, according to the median scenario. However, uncertainty increases over the projection period. The 90% confidence interval projected to 2065 is rather high and ranges between 1.25 and 1.93 children per woman.
Survival is projected to increase further. By 2065 life expectancy at birth would increase 5 years more for both genders, reaching 86.1 years and 90.2 years, respectively for men and women (80.6 and 85 years in 2016). The associated uncertainty attaches 90% confidence intervals ranging from 84.1 to 88.2 years for men and between 87.9 and 92.7 for women.