According to the median scenario, the resident population expected for Italy is estimated to be equal to 58.6 million in 2045 and 53.7 million in 2065. The decrease compared to 2016 (60.7 million) would be 2.1 million of residents in 2045 and 7 million in 2065. Taking into account the variability associated with demographic events, the population estimate by 2065 ranges from a minimum of 46.1 million to a maximum of 61.5. The chance of a population increase scenario by 2065 is 7%.
In the median scenario, a population decline would be displayed during the whole period of projection for the regions of the South and Isles area . The population of Centre-North is projected to decrease only from 2045 onwards, achieving a positive demographic balance within the first thirty years of projection. The empirical probability that in 2065 the Centre-North will have a wider population than today is 31%, while in the South and Isles area it will be almost
zero.
A population weight shifting from the South to the North areas of the country would occur. According to the median scenario, in 2065 the Centre-North would give hospitality to 71% of residents against 66% today; the South and Isles area would instead receive 29% against the current 34%.
Projected live births will not be enough to offset projected deaths. In the median scenario, the natural change reaches a value of -200 thousand after a few years of projection, it is then projected to -300 and -400 thousand, respectively, in the medium and long term.
Fertility is projected to rise from 1.34 to 1.59 children per woman between 2016 and 2065, according to the median scenario. However, uncertainty increases over the projection period. The 90% confidence interval projected to 2065 is rather high and ranges between 1.25 and 1.93 children per woman.
Survival is projected to increase further. By 2065 life expectancy at birth would increase to 86.1 years and to 90.2 years,
respectively for men and women (80.1 and 84.6 years in 2015). The associated uncertainty attaches 90% confidence intervals ranging from 84.1 to 88.2 years for men and between 87.9 and 92.7 for women.
The projected international migration will play an important role in assessing level and composition of the future population expected for Italy. The net migration is expected to be positive, being on average more than 150,000 units annually (133,000 last observed in 2015), although marked by a strong uncertainty. A possibility that in the long term net migration could turn negative is not excluded at all, although with little chance of being observed.
For information:
Marco Marsili
marsili@istat.it
ph +39 06 4673.2606
Gianni Corsetti
giacorsetti@istat.it
ph +39 06 4673.7367