Consumer prices

In September 2015, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) declined by 0.4% compared with the previous month and rose by 0.2 with respect to September 2014 (the same annual rate of change observed in the last three months). The flash estimate was 0.3%.

The stability of inflation is the synthesis, on the one hand, of the speed-up of the annual growth of prices of Unprocessed food (+3.3% from +1.9% in August 2015) and of the reversal trend of prices of Services related to transport (+0.8%, from -0.1% in the previous month) and on the other hand, of the further decrease of Non-regulated energy products (-12.8%, from -10.4% in August 2015).

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was +0.8% (up from +0.7% registered in August 2015); excluding energy, the inflation was +0.9% (up from 0.8 in the previous month) .

The decrease on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the decline – on which seasonal factors had an impact – of prices of Services related to transport (-4.0%); this decline was just partially balanced by the monthly increases of prices of Unprocessed food (+1.7%).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was -0.5% (from -0.4% observed in August 2015) and the annual rate of change of prices of Services was +0.9% (up from +0.7% in the previous month). As consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods increased by 0.3 percentage points with respect to August 2015.

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food increased by 0.6% on monthly basis and by 1.2% on annual basis (up from 0.7% in the previous month).

In September 2015 the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) rose by 1.6 compared with the previous month and by 0.2% with respect to September 2014  (the flash estimate was confirmed), down from +0.4% registered in August 2015.

The large increase on monthly basis was mainly due to the end of clothing and footwear summer sales, which are not taken into account in the national index NIC.

Core inflation measured by Italian HICP was +0.8%, down from +1.0% in August 2015; also excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the inflation was +0.8% (0.2 lower than in August 2015). Excluding energy, the inflation was stable at +1.1%.

In September 2015, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) rose by 1.7% compared with August 2015 and by 0.1% with respect to September 2014 (0.1 lower than HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT in terms of growth rate – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes, occurred in the last twelve months – is positive. It should be noted that the difference between HICP and HICP-CT in terms of growth rate represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.

Date of next release: 30 October 2015