Note on Italian economy - September - October 2025

The global economy is experiencing a moderate slowdown and international trade is exhibiting a volatile trend, which is partially attributable to the enduring high degree of instability in trade policies.

In the third quarter, both China and the euro area displayed a modest acceleration in GDP on a seasonally adjusted basis. Expectations for a moderation in the pace of economic growth and inflation in the United States supported the interest rate reduction in October.

According to preliminary estimates, Italian GDP was stationary on average between July and September with respect to the preceding three months, achieving a result comparable to that of Germany and falling below the averages for the euro area, France, and Spain. 

The performance of exports during the summer months, despite a contraction in August, was overall favorable (+1.2% compared to the previous three months), while imports experienced a slight decline (-0.3%).

The seasonally adjusted index of industrial production in September increased by 2.8% in comparison to August, thereby compensating for the significant decline observed in the preceding month (-2.7%). Nonetheless, the index recorded a 0.5% quarterly decrease in the third quarter.

Employment rose in September, with growth limited to female employees and all age groups except for individuals aged 35-49. By professional category, employment increased among permanent employees, decreased among temporary workers, and remained relatively stable among self-employed individuals. 

In October, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) demonstrates, according to preliminary estimates, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, which is lower than the euro area average of 2.1% and signifies a considerable slowdown in comparison to the preceding months.

Focus: From October 2021 to October 2025, food prices in Italy experienced an increase of 24.9%, nearly eight percentage points above the general harmonised consumer price index (17.3%). The considerable growth observed during 2022-2023 was notably influenced by the energy price shock, which significantly impacted the unprocessed food sector, both directly due to its substantial reliance on energy inputs and indirectly by raising the costs of essential intermediate products, such as fertilisers. Over the preceding two years, the momentum of growth has moderated, with support stemming from the recovery in profit margins for agricultural enterprises.