Note on Italian economy - March - April 2025

The international scenario continues to be characterized by a slowdown in economic activity and high and persistent uncertainty, fuelled by announcements regarding trade policy measures by the new US administration.

In the first quarter, despite a still good economic performance in China and the euro area, the US GDP recorded a slight negative change, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports.

According to the preliminary estimate, in the first three months of the year, Italian GDP grew by 0.3%, a better result than in France and Germany, but lower than in Spain.

In the first quarter, industrial production recorded a slight increase on a quarterly basis: the increase in the index in January was followed by a decline in February and stability in March.

Business confidence marked its third consecutive decline in April, involving all four main economic sectors. Consumer confidence also decreased in the same month, with a particularly marked worsening of opinions on Italy’s economic situation.

Despite a slight decrease in March, employment in the first quarter increased by 0.9% on a quarterly basis. This positive trend involved men and women, permanent employees and the self-employed, young people aged 15-24 and those aged 50 and over.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in all major European countries remained substantially unchanged in April compared to March, standing at 2.1% in Italy and 2.2% on average in the euro area.