Fertility intentions – Year 2024

In 2024, only 21.2% of people aged 18–49 reported that they (certainly or probably) intended to have a child within the next three years, down from 25.0% in 2003.

More than 10.5 million individuals state that they do not wish to have children either in the three years following the interview or at any point in the future. Among those expressing no fertility intentions, around one-third mention economic reasons, 9.4% refer to inadequate working conditions, and 8.6% report the absence of a partner.

Half of all women believe that the arrival of a child would worsen their employment opportunities (rising to over 65% among women aged 18–24), whereas 59.0% of men expect no impact on their own prospects.

When asked which policies should be prioritised to support fertility, 28.5% identify economic support measures, followed by childcare services (26.1%) and housing-related benefits (23.1%).

Fewer than half of the women who wished to have a child in 2016 succeeded in doing so within the subsequent three years.

For several decades, Italy has been undergoing a major demographic transformation marked by a sustained decline in births (1.18 children per woman in 2024, compared with 1.29 in 2003). Increasingly, young adults are choosing to postpone, or forgo altogether, the project of forming a family with children, amid economic uncertainty, labour-market precariousness, and changing life-course norms.

In a context in which most people of reproductive age use contraception to control childbearing (65.1% among women aged 15–49), fertility intentions offer valuable insights into the short- to medium-term possibility for future fertility. Analysing such intentions can therefore help, inform, and target policy measures for supporting childbearing.

Over one fifth plan a child within three years; one third postpones, but still wants children later

In 2024, 21.2% of people aged 18–49 (around 4.5 million individuals) reported intending to have a child within the three years following the interview. Unless otherwise specified, “intending to have a child” includes both respondents who stated they “certainly” want a child and those who stated they “probably” want one. The same definition applies, conversely, to those reporting that they do not want children. In both cases, estimates refer to all respondents, irrespective of whether they already have children.

The share intending to have a child within three years is lower than in 2003 (25.0%). This decline over the past two decades partly reflects population ageing within ages 18–49, with an increase in the proportion aged 45–49 (from 14.7% in 2003 to 19.9% in 2024), who are close to the end of their reproductive age and, in most cases, have already realised their fertility plans. Conversely, 74.2% reported not intending to have a child within the next three years (71.2% in 2003). A further 4.7% did not report their fertility intentions.

Among those not intending to have a child within three years, around one third (5.2 million people) nevertheless reported wanting a child beyond that time horizon (32.6%), a level just over three percentage points lower than in 2003 (36.0%) (Table 1).

In 2024, the shares of men and women reporting positive intentions within three years are very similar. Positive intentions are most common at ages 25–34 (38.5%) and 35–44 (21.6%), life-course phases in which childbearing is more often actively planned or completed towards the desired family size.

Among men with at least one child, the share intending another child is highest

Among those who already have one child, around one third of men and just over one quarter of women report intending to have another child within three years of the interview (32.4% and 26.0%, respectively), suggesting an intention to continue or complete their fertility plans.

By contrast, among those with no children, the share intending a child within three years is lower among men (23.6%) and higher among women (29.7%). Finally, among those with two or more children, the corresponding shares are markedly lower for both sexes (5.8% among men and 4.2% among women).

Most people aged 18–24 want to have children in the future

Almost 90% of people aged 18–24 do not intend to have a child within the next three years, a choice that is likely linked to the desire to complete education and training. Among them, however, the large majority (81.8%) report that they would like to have a child at some point in the future (almost 3 million people).

In particular, the share is 87.2% among young men (44.7% report being certain), while it is lower among young women, at 75.5% (37.3% report being certain). By contrast, among those aged 45–49 who do not intend to have a child within three years (an age group in which individuals who have already realised their fertility plans are more common), 95.0% report not intending to have children in the future.

The share is even higher among women (96.9%), who are nearing the end of their reproductive years. Just under 5 million people, almost 60% of those who have not had children and do not intend to have a child within three years, report that they would like to have children in the future.

In particular, childless men are more likely to report intentions for fatherhood beyond the three-year horizon (62.6%, with one quarter reporting strong intentions). By contrast, among those who already have one child or two or more children, the shares reporting that they do not intend to have any further children are very high (92.4% and 97.0%, respectively).