Consumer prices

In September 2018, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) decreased by 0.5% on monthly basis and increased by 1.4% compared with September 2017 (+1.6% in August 2018). The flash estimate was +1.5%.

The slowdown of the growth on annual basis of All items index was mainly due to prices of both Processed food including alcohol (from +1.9% of the previous month to +1.2%) and Unprocessed food (from +3.1% of the previous month to +2.4%) and to a lesser extent, to prices of Services related to transport (from +2.8% to +2.5%) and of Non-regulated energy products (from +9.5% to +9.3%) whose growth was still wide.

Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) was +0.7% (down from +0.8% in the previous month) and inflation excluding energy was +0.9% (down from +1.1% of August).

The decrease on monthly basis of All items index was due to the decrement of prices of Services related to transport (-4.9%) and, to a lesser extent, of Services related to recreation, including repair and personal care (-0,8%), mainly due to seasonal factors; also Processed food including alcohol registered a decrease of -0.6%.

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was +1.7% (down from +2.0% in August) and that one of prices of Services was +1.0% (down from +1.1% in the previous month). Therefore the inflationary gap between Services and Goods was still negative and equal to -0.7 percentage points (-0.9 in August).

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food decreased by 0.2% on monthly basis and by 1.5% on annual basis (down from +2.1% in the previous month).

In September, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 1.7% compared with the previous month and by 1.5% with respect to September 2017 (+1.6% in August 2018). The flash estimate was +1.6%.

The increase on monthly basis was mainly due to the conclusion of summer sales of Clothing and footwear (+33.1% compared with August 2018), which are not taken into account in the national index NIC.

In September, core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food), measured by Italian HICP, was +0.7% (down from +0.8% in the previous month). Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.5%) and excluding energy (+0.9%) decelerated (respectively from +0.6% and from +1.0% in August 2018).

In September the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax (HICP-CT) increased by +1.6% on monthly basis and by 1.4% on annual basis. Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates, which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months, was positive and equal to 0.1 percentage points.