Consumer and business confidence - November 2024

In November 2024, the consumer confidence index shrunk from 97.4 to 96.6. In particular, a more evident deterioration was observed in the economic and future indices which passed from 99.7 to 97.8 and from 95.0 to 93.8, respectively. As for the other components, the current climate slipped from 99.2 to 98.7  and the personal one from 96.6 to 96.2.

With reference to the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) slackened from 93.4 to 93.1.

The manufacturing confidence climate progressed from 85.8 to 86.5. Compared to the previous month, assessments on order books showed signals of optimism, while some concerns stemmed from expectations on the future level of production (the related balances varied from -25.5 to -21.9 and from 0.5 to -1.6, respectively). With regard to inventories, the balance of the variable lowered from 2.6 to 1.9).

The construction confidence climate worsened from 103.9 to 101.5. Firms’ assessments on order books were more optimistic (the balance passed from -0.7 to -0.1), while expectations on future employment got worse (the relative balance decreased from 8.6 to 3.3).

The market services climate declined from 95.2 to 93.7. The worsening was due to decreasing expectations on volume of order books (balance passed from 3.2 to 1.5) and – to a lesser extent – to deteriorated assessments  on order book volume and on current business trend (the related balances diminished from 1.5 to   -1.0 and from 0.2 to -0.4, respectively).

The retail trade confidence climate grew further from 103.8 to 106.7. The balance referring to the current business activity grew for the third month in row and the one on future business trend also increased (from 14.5 to 21.3 and from 24.3 to 26.7, respectively). Lastly,  the balance of assessments on inventories remained virtually stable, slipping from 6.3 to 6.2.

Il commento

A novembre 2024 il clima di fiducia delle imprese scende per il terzo mese consecutivo rimanendo su un livello minimo da aprile 2021. Il calo è dovuto al peggioramento nel comparto dei servizi di mercato e in quello delle costruzioni.

L’indice di fiducia dei consumatori evidenzia un’evoluzione sfavorevole dovuta principalmente al peggioramento sia delle attese sulla disoccupazione sia delle opinioni sull’opportunità di acquistare beni durevoli nella fase attuale.