After a strong recovery of production and trade during the Summer, new containment measures of contagions, which are recently increasing in many countries, put a drag on international recovery perspectives.
In 2020 Italian GDP is expected to decrease by 8.9% in real term and then increase in 2021 (+4.0%, Table 1). This year, the domestic demand net of inventories will provide a negative contribution (-7.5 p.p.) together with foreign demand (-1.2 p.p) and inventories (-0.2 p.p). In 2021 the domestic demand will provide a positive contribution (+3.8 p.p) together with net exports (+0.3 p.p.) while inventories will contribute negatively to GDP growth (-0.1 p.p.).
Labour market conditions will follow GDP evolution over the forecast period with a sharp fall in 2020 (-10.0%) and a recovery in 2021 (+3.6%). At the same time, the rate of unemployment will decrease at 9.4% in the current year and will increase at 11.0% in 2021.