The sectoral divide between falling industrial production and resilient turnover in services persists. However, business survey indicators convey first signals of optimism in manufacturing. Economic growth is projected to slightly increase its pace to moderate growth rates of 0.3% over the forecast horizon.
Private consumption will continue to drive growth. In the first half of 2020, industrial production and investment are expected to pick up after a negative performance in Q4 2019.
Annual inflation remains low in 2019, with a moderate acceleration in the first half of 2020.
New risks to the outlook emerge from tensions between the US and Iran and strikes in France, while longer-standing risks about Brexit and trade tensions between the US and China have eased somewhat.