In July 2015, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) declined by 0.1% compared with the previous month and rose by 0.2% with respect to July 2014 (the same annual rate of change observed in June 2015). The flash estimate was confirmed.
The stability of inflation is the synthesis, on the one hand, of the lower amplitude of the annual decrease of prices of Regulated energy products (-1.1%, from -3.6% in June 2015) and the speed-up of the annual growth of prices of some services and on the other hand, of the higher decline, with respect to the same month of the previous year, of prices of Non-regulated energy products (-8.7%, from -7.2% in the previous month) and the slowdown to the annual growth of prices of Unprocessed food (+1.7% from +2.1% in June 2015).
Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation rose to 0.8%, up from 0.6% registered in the previous month; excluding energy, the inflation was stable at 0.8%.
The decrease on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the decline of prices of Fresh fruit (-8.1%) and Fresh vegetables (-7.2%) – on which seasonal factors had an impact – and of prices of Regulated (-0.5%) and Non-regulated energy products (-0.8%); this decline was partially off-set by the monthly increase of prices of Services related to transport (+1.9%), on which seasonal factors had an impact, too.
The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was stable at -0.3% and the annual rate of prices of Services was +0.8% (0.1 higher than in the previous month). As consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods increased by 0.1 percentage points with respect to June 2015.
Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food declined by 0.9% on monthly basis and rose by 0.7% on annual basis (down from +0.8% in the previous month).
In July 2015 the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) decreased by 2.0% compared with the previous month and rose by 0.3% with respect to July 2014 (the flash estimate was 0.4%), up from +0.2% registered in June 2015. The large decrease on monthly basis was due to the summer sales of Clothing and footwear, which are not taken into account in the national index NIC.
Core inflation measured by Italian HICP was 0.9%, up from 0.8% in June 2015; excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the inflation was 1.0% (0.3 higher than in June 2015). Excluding energy, the inflation was stable at 0.9%.
In July 2015, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) declined by 1.9% compared with June 2015 and rose by 0.3% with respect to July 2014 (as the HICP). Therefore the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rate – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes, occurred in the last twelve months – was zero (as in June 2015). It should be noted that the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rate represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.
Date of next release: 31 August 2015