Note on Italian economy - January-February 2026

In 2025, the major world economies showed heterogeneous trends, with China’s GDP growth aligning with government targets (+5.0%), a slowdown in economic activity in the United States (+2.2%), and an overall recovery in the euro area surpassing expectations (+1.3%).  

The conflict in the Middle East is exerting upward pressure on crude oil prices, factoring in Iran’s role as an oil producer and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a trade route, with a worsening of the growth prospects for the global economy in 2026.

In the 2025 fourth quarter, Italy’s GDP recorded a quarterly growth of 0.3%. In the European comparison, the increase, driven by domestic demand, was higher than in France (+0.2%) and similar to that in Germany (+0.3%), but lower than in Spain (+0.8%).  

In January 2026, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index recorded the second consecutive decline in quarterly terms (-0.6%), following the drop in December (-0.5%). However, in the average of the November-January quarter, production increased compared to the previous three months (+0.7%).  

Employment rose in January. The growth involved only men and all age groups except for those aged 15-24. By professional position, employment increased among both employees and self-employed individuals.  

In February, the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) rose by 1.6% in year-on-year terms, showing a marked acceleration. Inflation in Italy remains below the euro area average, although the differential is narrowing.

Focus: After the abrupt halt in 2020, caused by lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Italian labour market has entered a phase of sustained growth, culminating in 2025 average with the surpassing of the 24 million threshold in employment. However, Italy exhibits, in the period 2019-2025, structurally higher inactivity rates than the European average, with a significant and entrenched gender gap compared to major EU partners. Despite the recovery phase following the 2020 pandemic shock, a wider territorial and social gap persists relative to major European partners, largely attributable to the gender gap.