Note on Italian economy - May and June 2025

The uncertainty surrounding the international framework is increasing further. In addition to the frequent updates on U.S. trade policy, there has been an escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Growth prospects for international trade, although showing signs of recovery in May and June, remain negative. The trend in economic activity varies significantly across regions: moderate growth in China, a decline in the United States, and a decrease in industrial production in the euro area.

In May, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index recorded a month-on-month decline of 0.7%. However, in the March-May quarter, the index rose by 0.6%.

In June, business confidence increased for the second consecutive month, while consumer confidence, after improving in May, declined again, with a broad-based drop.

In the first four months of the year, exports and imports of goods overall increased on a year-on-year basis in both EU and non-EU countries.

The labour market remains solid, with the number of employed persons rising by 0.3% in May compared to the previous month. Growth was observed among both permanent employees and self-employed workers, while it declined among temporary employees.

Household spending on final consumption increased on a quarterly basis in the first quarter, alongside an increase in gross disposable income and in the saving rate of consumer households, which rose by 0.6 percentage points.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded a year-on-year increase of 1.7% in June, unchanged from May and two-tenths of a percentage point lower than that of the euro area. Inflation for the shopping basket (food products and goods for household and personal care) accelerated, rising by 3.1% in June compared to 2.7% in May.