Monthly Report on Italian economy - September 2023

Different cyclical positions of main countries and uncertainty on inflation’s future evolution characterise the Global environment. The decisions of main Central Banks will be likely affected by commodities increasing prices.

According to the quarterly national account revision, in the second quarter, the Italian GDP decreased by 0.4% on the previous quarter and increased by 0.3% in comparison with the second quarter of 2022. The carry-over growth for 2023 is 0.7%.

On the supply side, in August industrial production index increased by 0.2% with respect to July. In the period June-August, on average the index increased by 0.4% with respect to the previous three months.

In the second quarter, Gross disposable income of consumer households remained substantially unchanged over the previous quarter, while their final consumption expenditure grew by 0.2%. Households’ saving rate decreased remaining at an historically low value.

Labour market conditions continue to be favourable. In August, the number of employed people grew, while unemployed fell and inactive persons remained substantially stable. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3%.

In September, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 5.7% on annual basis (up from +5.5% in the previous month). The positive differential with the euro area increased substantially.

Households and business surveys results in September suggest that the current weak phase of Italian economy might continue in the coming months.