In 2026 and 2027, Italian GDP is forecast to grow by 0.9 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively (Table 1), driven mainly by domestic demand excluding changes in inventories (a contribution of +1.2 percentage points in 2026 and +0.6 percentage points in 2027). Net external demand, by contrast, is expected to contribute zero in 2026 and a slightly positive in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The upward trend in commodity prices on international markets is leading to an acceleration in headline inflation: the household expenditure deflator, which stood at +1.5 per cent in 2025, is projected to average 3.3 per cent in 2026 before falling to 2.8 per cent in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Over the two years 2026\u20132027, household and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) consumption is forecast to expand but at a progressively slower rate (+1.0% and +0.6% respectively, down from +1.2% in 2025), held back by the sharp rise in prices against a backdrop of positive but essentially stable growth in nominal gross wages per capita.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gross fixed capital formation is also expected to show a slowdown (+2.9 per cent in 2026 and +1.0 per cent in 2027, down from +3.9 per cent in 2025), caused mainly by the scaling back of public stimulus measures under current legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Employment (in terms of full-time equivalent (FTE)) is projected to show a slowdown in growth in 2026 (+0.9 per cent, following +1.2 per cent in 2025), accompanied by a further fall in the unemployment rate (6.0 per cent, down from 6.1 per cent in 2025). In 2027, an even more modest expansion in employment is forecast (+0.5%) and a further fall in the unemployment rate (5.9%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In 2026 and 2027, Italian GDP is forecast to grow by 0.9 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4082],"tags":[3233,3465,3574,3511,2801,3470,3228,3256,2937,3495,2859,2807,3469,3478,3468,3283,2820],"regione":[],"tema":[4050,4052,4067,4071,4056,4065,4038,4039],"class_list":["post-140208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-press-release","tag-confidence","tag-economia","tag-economic-outlook","tag-economy","tag-fiducia","tag-forecasts","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-inflazione","tag-labour","tag-lavoro","tag-pil","tag-previsioni-tipologie","tag-prezzi-2","tag-price","tag-production","tag-produzione","tema-conti-nazionali","tema-industria-e-costruzioni","tema-industry-and-construction","tema-labour","tema-lavoro-e-retribuzioni","tema-national-accounts","tema-prezzi","tema-prices"],"meta_fields":{"data_pubblicazione":"","descrizioneperiodo":"","titolobreve":"","news":"","news_rss":"","sottotitolo":""},"acf":[],"wpml_current_locale":"en_US","wpml_translations":[],"tags-info":[{"id":3233,"label":"confidence","slug":"confidence"},{"id":3465,"label":"economia","slug":"economia"},{"id":3574,"label":"economic outlook","slug":"economic-outlook"},{"id":3511,"label":"economy","slug":"economy"},{"id":2801,"label":"fiducia","slug":"fiducia"},{"id":3470,"label":"forecasts","slug":"forecasts"},{"id":3228,"label":"GDP","slug":"gdp"},{"id":3256,"label":"inflation","slug":"inflation"},{"id":2937,"label":"inflazione","slug":"inflazione"},{"id":3495,"label":"labour","slug":"labour"},{"id":2859,"label":"lavoro","slug":"lavoro"},{"id":2807,"label":"pil","slug":"pil"},{"id":3469,"label":"previsioni","slug":"previsioni-tipologie"},{"id":3478,"label":"prezzi","slug":"prezzi-2"},{"id":3468,"label":"price","slug":"price"},{"id":3283,"label":"production","slug":"production"},{"id":2820,"label":"produzione","slug":"produzione"}],"categories-info":[{"id":4082,"label":"Press release","slug":"press-release"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=140208"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140208\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":140356,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140208\/revisions\/140356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=140208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=140208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=140208"},{"taxonomy":"regione","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/regione?post=140208"},{"taxonomy":"tema","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.istat.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tema?post=140208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}