In 2024, non-observed economy increases by 0.6bn euro, +0.3% with respect to the preceding year (+3.2% the growth rate of GDP at current prices). The incidence on GDP is reduced by 0.3 percentage points compared to 2023 (10,2%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Underground economy is worth about 198bn euro, +0.8bn euro compared to 2023, while illegal activities decrease by 0.2bn euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unregistered FTEs are 3,277mln, increasing by about 145k units with respect to 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Non-Observed Economy (NOE) refers to economic activities that cannot be directly observed and mainly includes the underground and illegal economy. Underground economy is composed of: (1) underreporting of value added, i.e., the value added that is concealed by intentional mis-declaration of turnover and\/or costs; (2) the value added generated by the employment of un-registered workers; (3) a residual component including tips, undeclared rents paid to households and the effect of the balancing between estimates of supply and demand (which includes both purely statistical phenomena and underground activities that are not captured by standard estimation methods). Illegal economy includes both activities involving the production and sell of goods and services that are outside the rule of law, and activities involving legal goods and services but that are carried out without proper authorization. For EU countries, only drugs trafficking, prostitution services and smuggling of tobacco and alcohol have to be included within the National Accounts framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, the value added generated by NOE \u2013 i.e., the sum of underground economy and illegal activities \u2013 is worth 218.2bn euro, increasing by 0.3% with respect to 2023 (217.6bn euro). The incidence of NOE on GDP, which shows a growth rate of 3.2% at current price compared to the preceding year, decreases to 9.9% from 10.2% in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The general dynamic of NOE is driven by the growth of the value added generated by unregistered FTEs, which increases by 3.9% (+3.1bn euro). Compared to 2023, the value added from underreporting decreases by 0.6% (-0.6bn euro). Relevant negative dynamics is evidenced by the other components of NOE: tips and unregistered rents decrease by 13.1% (-1.6bn euro) compared to 2023. Illegal activities show a reduction by 0.9% (-0.2bn euro).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024 a significant shift in the composition of the relative weights of the different components of NOE is stressed. In particular, the value added generated by the employment of unregistered FTEs accounts for 36.6%, recovering 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023 (when it was 35.5%). Instead, the weight of the value added from underreporting falls to 49.3% from 49.7% in 2023. The other components of underground economy have an impact of 4.9% on the whole amount of NOE (5.6% in 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finally, the progressive reduction in the impact of the illegal economy still continues. In 2024, it accounts for 9.1% of NOE, one percentage point below the level of 2021 (when it was at 10.1%), 0.1 points less than in 2023 (9.2%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, underground economy amounts to 198.4bn euro, increasing by 0.8bn compared to 2023. Its share on GDP (9%) returns to the level of 2021, reversing the tendency shown in the preceding two-years period (it was 9.2 in 2023 and 9.1 in 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The component connected with underreporting is worth 107.6bn euro (+0.6bn compared to 108.2bn in 2023) while the value added from unregistered FTEs amounts to 80.3bn (+3.1 bn euro with respect to 77.2 the preceding year). The other components are 10.6bn euro, significantly decreasing with respect to 12.2bn euro shown in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The spread of underground economy is linked to the typology of the reference market for goods and services rather than to their typology. In order to capture this feature of the phenomenon in a more accurate way, a sectoral breakdown in used that allows to account for the functional specificity of the goods and services rather than for the technological features of the related production processes. In the classification adopted, manufacturing activities are clustered into Production of final consumption goods, Production of investment goods, Production of intermediate consumption goods (including also energy sector and water and waste management). Within tertiary industries, Professional services are considered separately from Other business services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The industries that are more affected by underground economy are Other personal services, where underground value added contributes to 30.7% of the total of the industry, Trade, transportation, accommodation and food services (18.5%) and Construction (17.7%). A lower incidence is observed for Other business services (5%), Production of investment goods (4%) and Production of intermediate consumption goods (1.4%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The tendency towards a reduction in the overall impact of underground economy on total value added (10% in 2024 compared to 10.3% in 2023) results from heterogeneous sectoral dynamics. On the one hand, a decreasing weight of underground economy is observed for a number of industries, in particular for Other personal services (-0.9 percentage points with respect to 2023). On the other hand, an increase of the impact is shown by Construction (+1.2 percentage points, after a three-years period of relevant reductions), Other business services (+0.4 points) and Agriculture (+0.2 points).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The contribution of underreporting of value added has a significant role in Other personal services and Construction (10.8% for both industries), Trade, transportation, accommodation and food services (10.7%) and Professional services (10.3%). The phenomenon is less relevant in Education, health and social services (3%), Production of investment goods (2.7%), Other business services (2.5%) and Production of intermediate consumption goods (0.5%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The value added generated by unregistered FTEs has a higher weight in Other personal services (19.4% of the total value added of the industry), also due to the inclusion of domestic staff employed by households. Conversely, the phenomenon is less relevant in manufacturing (with an impact ranging from 0.9% to 2.8%) and in Other business services (1.5%). In Agriculture, the underground economy, only connected with unregistered FTEs, represents 15.2% of the total value added of the industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Job positions are defined as unregistered when they are carried out without compliance with the current regulations regarding taxation and social contributions, as well as those related to illegal activities, which are not directly observable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, unregistered FTEs are 3.277mln, mainly employees (2.396mln FTEs). Compared to 2023, the number of unregistered FTEs increase by 4.6% (slightly more than 145k FTEs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unregistered employees grow at about twice the rate of self-employed, with an increase of 5.4% compared to 2.7%. In absolute terms, this represents an increase by 121.8k FTEs for employees and by 23.4k FTEs for self-employed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, the rate of unregistered work, defined as the percentage of unregistered FTEs with respect to the total employment increases to 13.1% (it was 12.7% in 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The increase in the rate of unregistered work is due to the high positive trend of unregistered FTEs (+4.6%), almost three times the growth rate shown by registered FTEs. In 2024, the latter increases by +1.6% (approximately +339k FTEs), driven by the component of employees, which increases by 2.9% (+437.5k registered FTEs), while registered self-employed decrease by 1.6% (-98.5k registered FTEs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rate of unregistered work for employees is confirmed to be higher than the one of self-employed (13.2% and 12.7%, respectively). However, a tendency towards the convergence between the two rates can be observed over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the last year, an increase by 0.3 percentage points is observed in the rate of unregistered work for employees and by 0.5 points for self-employed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, the incidence of unregistered work on total employment increase across many industries. Only for Education, health and social service and Other business services a decline by 0.2 and of 0.1 percentage points, respectively, is observed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The industries showing the highest increase in the rate of unregistered work, in terms of FTEs, are Other personal services (+0.9 percentage points), Agriculture, forestry and fishing and Construction (+0.8 points for both). Lower growth rates are registered in Trade, transportation, accommodation and food services and Production of capital goods (both with an increase by 0.5 percentage points) and Production of intermediate consumption goods (+0.3 points). Finally, the sectors of Production of consumption goods and Professional Services follow with the lowest growth of respectively 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Agriculture, which is strongly characterised by the presence of unregistered FTEs, the increase in the total rate (from 17.6% in 2023 to 18.4% in 2024) is entirely attributable to the rise in unregistered work among self-employed (+1.1 percentage points), while there is a decrease by 0.3 percentage points for the rate related to employees, unlike all other industries, where the rate of unregistered work amongst employees is on the upward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For the self-employed component, the rate of unregistered FTEs in the Industry (excluding Construction), Trade, Transportation, accommodation and food services and Other personal services reach, in 2024, the highest level since the beginning of the time series, with growth rates of 12.6%, 16.8% and 21.2%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In general, the contribution of unregistered work is particularly relevant in tertiary activities (14.2%), especially in Other personal services (41.4%), where the demand for domestic staff by households as employers is concentrated. The presence of unregistered FTEs is also significant in Agriculture (18.4%), Trade, transportation, accommodation and food services (15.5%) and Construction (13.6%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Overall, approximately 62% of unregistered FTEs are employed in Other personal services and Trade, transportation, accommodation and food services (65.4% of employees FTEs and 52.1% of self-employed FTEs). Within Industry (excluding Construction), where the weight of unregistered work is limited (6.0%), the highest rate of unregistered is shown by Production of consumption goods (7.9%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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