Consumer prices (provisional data)

In March 2018, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) increased by 0.4% on monthly basis and by 0.9% compared with March 2017 (it was +0.5% in February 2018).

In March, the recovery of inflation was due to several reasons. The main reason was the trend reversal of prices of Food including alcohol, driven by the acceleration of Processed food including alcohol (+2.5%, from +1.3% in February) and by the wide reduction of the decrease of Unprocessed food (-0.4% from -3.2%). Other contributions to the recovery of inflation came from Tobacco (+2.2% from +0.3% in February) and Services related to transport (+2.5%, from +1.9%).

As a consequence, taking into account also the slowdown of the growth of prices of Energy (+3.0% from +3.7% in the previous month), mainly due to Non-regulated energy products (+1.1% from +2.1%), both inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) and inflation excluding energy showed an acceleration (respectively +0.9% up from +0.6% and +0.7% from +0.2%).

The increase on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to prices of Processed food including alcohol (+1.3%), Tobacco (+1.8%) and Services related to transport (+1.7%, which were affected by seasonal factors).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was +1.0% (up from +0.3% in February) and that one of prices of Services was +0.9% (up from +0.8% in the previous month). As a consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods returned negative and equal to -0.1 percentage point (it was +0.5 percentage points in February).

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food increased by 0.8% on monthly basis and by 1.1% on annual basis (reversing the trend from -0.6% in the previous month).

In March 2018, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 2.5% compared with February and by 1.1% with respect to March 2017 (it was +0.5% in February). The wide increase on monthly basis was mainly due to the conclusion of winter sales of Clothing and footwear, which are not taken into account in the national index NIC.

In March core inflation, measured by Italian HICP was +0.9% (up from +0.6% in February). Both inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.7%) and inflation excluding energy (+0.9%) accelerated (up from +0.5% the first and +0.3% the second).