Consumer prices

In June 2017, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) decreased by 0.1% on monthly basis and increased by 1.2% compared with June 2016, down from +1.4% in May 2017. The flash estimate was confirmed.

In June, the lower growth of the annual rate of change of All items index was mainly due to the prices of Unprocessed food (+1.4%, from +3.8% in May) and Non-regulated energy products (+2.9%, from +6.8% in the previous month), partly offset by the increase of the prices of Services related to transport (+4.1% from +3.2% in May).

Therefore, excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation increased by +0.9% (0.2 percentage points higher than in May), while inflation excluding energy was +0.9% (0.1 percentage points lower than in the previous month).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was +0.9% (down from +1.6% in May) and that one of prices of Services was +1.5% (up from +1.4%). As a consequence, the
inflationary gap between Services and Goods was positive again (+0.6 percentage points).

The decrease on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the prices of Unprocessed food (-1.9%), especially fresh fruit and fresh vegetables, and Non-regulated energy products (-1.6%), whose effects are partially balanced by the increase of the prices of Services related to transport (+1.1%).

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food decreased by 0.7% on monthly basis and increased by 0.7% on annual basis (from +1.6% in the previous month).

In June 2017, the rate of change of Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) decreased by 0.2% compared with the previous month and increased by 1.2% with respect to June 2016 (the annual rate of change observed in the previous month was +1.6%). The flash estimate was confirmed.

In June core inflation, measured by Italian HICP, was +1.0% (up from 0.8% in May) and inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was +1.0% (from +0.9%
in May), while inflation excluding Energy slowed (+1.0% from +1.1% in the previous month).

In June 2017, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous month and increased by 1.3% with respect to June 2016 (0.1 percentage points higher than HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months – was negative.

In the first half of 2017, the recovery of inflation, measured by Italian HICP, was spread across all the population subgroups defined according to their consumption expenditure level.

Specifically, in the first quarter of 2017, inflation rates varied in a range between +1.5% of the first subgroup (20% of the households with the lowest equivalent expenditure) and +1.2% of the last subgroup (20% of the households with the highest equivalent expenditure). In the same period, headline inflation,
as measured by HICP, increased by 1.3%.

In the second quarter 2017, inflation continued to rise for both the first subgroup (+1.7%) and the last one (+1.6%). In the same period, headline inflation, as measured by HICP, increased by 1.6%.