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Press release

Consumer prices

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In September 2016 the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) declined by 0.2 on monthly basis and increased by 0.1% with respect to September 2015, from -0.1% in August 2016. The flash estimate was confirmed.

The reversal trend of consumer prices, after seven months of decreases, was mainly due to the reduction of the decline on annual basis of prices of both Non-regulated energy products (-2.7%, from -7.0% in August) and Regulated energy products (-3.8%, from -5.9% in the previous month) and, to a lesser extent, to the recovery of prices of Services related to transport (+1.1%, the rate of change was zero in the previous month).

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was +0.5% (up from +0.4 registered in August); also excluding energy, the inflation was +0.5% (down from +0.6% in the previous month).

The decrease on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the decline of prices of Services related to transport (-3.0%) and of Services related to recreation, including repair and personal care           (-0.8%).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was -0.2% (up from -0.5% in August) and the annual rate of change of prices of Services was +0.4% (down from +0.5% in the previous month). Therefore, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods decreased by 0.4 percentage points with respect to August.

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food decreased by 0.1% on monthly basis and was stable on annual basis (0.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month).

 

In September 2016 the rate of change of Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 1.9% on monthly basis and by 0.1% on annual basis (the annual rate of change observed in August was       -0.1%). The flash estimate was confirmed.

The large increase on monthly basis was mainly due to the end of clothing and footwear summer sales, which are not taken into account in the national index NIC.

Core inflation measured by Italian HICP was +0.5% (up from +0.4% in August 2016); the inflation excluding Energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was +0.4% (the same rate of change observed in the previous month); also excluding Energy, the inflation was +0.4% (down from +0.6% in August 2016).

In September 2016, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) increased by 1.8% compared with the previous month and held steady with respect to September 2015 (0.1 lower than HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months – was positive and equal to 0.1: it has to be noted that this difference represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.

Reference period: September 2016

Date of Issue: 14 October 2016

Next release: 31 October 2016

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