Consumer prices

In July 2016 the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) increased by 0.2 on monthly basis and declined by 0.1% with respect to July 2015, up from -0.4% in June 2016. The flash estimate was confirmed.

The lower decline on annual basis of the All items index was mainly due, on one hand, to the speed up of the yearly rates of change registered by the prices of Unprocessed food (+1.5%, from +0.7% in the previous month), of Services related to recreation, including repair and personal care (+0.8% from +0.4%) and of Services related to transport (+0.7%, from +0.2% in June) and on the other hand, to the reduction of the decline of prices of Regulated energy products (-5.9%, from -6.8% in June 2016).

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was +0.6% (up from +0.5 registered in June 2016); also excluding energy, the inflation was +0.6% (0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month).

The increase on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the rise of prices of Services related to transport (+2.5%) and of Services related to recreation, including repair and personal care (+0.7%), both of theme mainly due to seasonal factors.

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was -0.6% (up from -0.8% in June 2016) and the annual rate of change of prices of Services was +0.6% (from +0.4% in the previous month). As a consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods is not changed with respect to June 2016.

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food decreased by 0.7% on monthly basis and increased by 0.4 on annual basis (0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month).

In July 2016 the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) decreased by 1.9% compared with the previous month and by 0.2% with respect to July 2015 (the flash estimate was -0.1%), the same rate registered in June 2016. The large decrease on monthly basis was due to the summer sales of Clothing and footwear, which are not taken into account in the national index NIC.

Core inflation and the inflation excluding Energy (both of them measured by Italian HICP) were +0.6% (up from +0.5% in June 2016); the inflation excluding Energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was +0.5% (the same rate observed in the previous month).

In July 2016, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) declined by 1.8% compared with June 2016 and by 0.2% with respect to July 2015 (the same rate of change of HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months – was zero: it has to be noted that this difference represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.