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Press release

Consumer and business confidence

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After the interruption in April 2020 due to coronavirus emergency, Consumer and Business confidence surveys were carried out again in May 2020. Estimates calculated on data collected in May 2020 showed the consumer confidence climate deteriorated from 100.1, detected in March 2020, to 94.3. Looking at the index components, the economic climate crashed from 94.4 to 71.9, the personal one decreased from 102.4 to 100.9, the current one fell from 104.8 to 95.0 and, finally, the future one slightly decreased from 93.3 to 93.1.

As for the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) collapsed from 79.5 in March to 51.1.

The confidence index in manufacturing went down from 87.2 recorded in March to 71.2. The assessments on order books worsened dramatically passing from -23.9 to -63.9 and the expectations on production worsened from -23.6 to -26.9. Lastly, the balance of assessments on inventories moved from 3.9 to 6.1.

The confidence index in construction slumped from its March value 139.0 to 108.4. Both its components deteriorated: the assessments on order books/construction plans from -17.4 to -46.7 and the employment expectations from 1.1 to -10.1.

The market services confidence index tumbled from 75.7 in March to 38.8. Among the variables making up the climate, the balance of expectations on order books improved from -49.5 to -45.2, while both the one of assessments on order books and the one related to business trend collapsed from -10.9 to -69.3 and from -4.1 to -64.8, respectively.

The retail trade confidence index plummeted, passing from its March value 95.6 to 67.8. In a situation characterized by a sharp build-up of inventories (the balance of the variable passed from 7.7 to 29.5), the opinions of surveyed firms on current sales collapsed from 16.2 to -45.8 and the ones on the future business worsened from -15 to -16.5. The retail trade confidence got drastically worse both in the small and medium scale distribution (from 90.6 to 61.2) and in the large scale one (from 97.4 to 71.3).

The ongoing health emergency has slightly disturbed the May 2020 data collection phase. The management of the disturbances, which allowed the processing and dissemination of the May 2020 data, is explained in the Methodological Note on page 12.

Reference period: May 2020

Date of Issue: 28 May 2020

Next release: 26 June 2020

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