Consumer prices

In June 2018, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) increased by 0.2% on monthly basis and by 1.3% compared with June 2017 (+1.0% in May 2018). The flash estimate was +1.4%.

The acceleration of the growth on annual basis of All items index was mainly due to prices of Non-regulated energy products (from +5.3% to +9.4%) and, to a lesser extent, of Unprocessed food (+2.4% in May to +3.4%) and of Services related to transport (from +1.7% to +2.9%).

As a consequence, inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) was +0.8% (as in the previous month) and inflation excluding energy was +1.0% (from +0.8% in May).

The increase on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the rises of prices of Non-regulated energy products (+2.3%) and of Services related to transport (+2.2).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was +1.5% (up from +1.0% in May) and that one of prices of Services was +1.0% (from +0.9% in the previous month). As a consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods was negative and equal to -0.5 percentage points (-0.1 in May).

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food decreases by 0.2% on monthly basis and increased by 2.2% on annual basis (up from +1.7% in the previous month).

In June 2018 the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.2% compared with May and by 1.4% with respect to June 2017 (it was +1.0% in the previous month).The flash estimate was +1.5%.

In May core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food), measured by Italian HICP, was +0.8% (as in the previous month). Inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.7%) and excluding energy (+1.1%) accelerated (respectively from +0.6% and +0.9% in the previous month).

In June 2018, the Italian harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax (HICP-CT) increased by 0.2% compared with the previous month and by 1.3% with respect to June 2017. Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates, which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months, was positive and equal to 0.1 percentage points.

In the first half of 2018, Italian HICP by population subgroups defined according to the consumption expenditure level, exhibited a slight slowdown for the first four groups of families, while for the fifth group (probably the most well-off families) the inflation rate remained roughly at the corresponding levels measured in the last quarter of 2017.

Specifically, in the first quarter of 2018, inflation rates varied in a range between +1.0% of the first subgroup (20% of the households with the lowest equivalent expenditure) and +0.8% of the last subgroup (20% of the households with the highest equivalent expenditure). In the same period, headline inflation, as measured by HICP, increased by 0.9%. In the second quarter the inflation rate increased slightly for both the first subgroup (+1.1%) and the last one (+0.9%). In the same period, headline inflation, as measured by HICP, increased by 1.0%.