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Press release

Consumer prices

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In June 2016 the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) increased by 0.1 on a monthly basis and declined by 0.4% with respect to June 2015, down from -0.3% in May 2016. The flash estimate was confirmed.

The larger decline on annual basis of the All items index took place within a framework of basic stability of the annual rates of change of the prices of the different types of products. Exceptions are the slowdown of the annual growth of prices of Non energy industrial goods (+0.5%, from +0.7% in May 2016), the reduction of the decline of prices of Non-regulated energy goods (-8.1%, from 10.0% in May 2016) and the speed up of prices of Tobacco (+2.9%, from +2.0% in the previous month).

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was +0.5% (down from +0.6 registered in May 2016) and, excluding energy, the inflation was +0.4% (0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month).

The increase on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the rise of prices of Non-regulated energy products (+2.1%), of Tobacco (+0.6%), and of Services related to recreation, including repair and personal care (+0.4%).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was -0.8% (up from -1.0% in May 2016) and the annual rate of change of prices of Services was +0.4% (the same rate observed in the previous month). As a consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods decreased by 0.2 percentage points with respect to May 2016.

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food increased by 0.2% both on monthly basis and on annual basis (the rate of change was zero in the previous month).

In June 2016 the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased by 0.2 compared with the previous month and decreased by 0.2% with respect to June 2015 (the flash estimate was -0.3%), up from  -0.3% registered in May 2016.

Core inflation measured by Italian HICP was +0.5% (down from +0.6% in May 2016); both the inflation excluding Energy, food, alcohol and tobacco and the inflation excluding Energy were +0.5% (down from +0.6% in the previous month).

In June 2016, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) rose by 0.2% compared with May 2016 and declined by 0.3% with respect to June 2015 (0.1 lower than  HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months – was positive and equal to 0.1: it has to be noted that this difference represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.

In the first half of 2016, Italian HICP exhibited a deflationary tendency for most of the population subgroups defined according to the consumption expenditure level.

Specifically, in the first quarter of 2016, inflation rates varied in a range between -0.7% of the first subgroup (i.e. the 20% of those households with the lowest equivalent expenditure) and 0.2% of the last subgroup (the 20% of population with the highest equivalent expenditure). In the same period, headline inflation, as measured by HICP fell to 0%.

Concerning the last population subgroup, however, a further decline in the second quarter of 2016 pushed the inflation rate to –0.1%, while for the households with the lower level of expenditure quarterly rate of change on annual basis remained stable and equal to -0.7%.

Reference period: June 2016

Date of Issue: 13 July 2016

Next release: 29 July 2016

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