Consumer prices

In August 2015, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) rose by 0.2% on both monthly and annual basis (the same annual rate of change observed in July 2015). The flash estimate was confirmed.

Inflation is stable for the most of the typologies of product and the few movements registered tend to offset each other. Among these, they are to be highlighted the further decrease of prices of Non-regulated energy products (-10.4%, from -8.7% in July 2015) and the trend reversal, but with an opposite sign, respectively of prices of Services related to transport (-0.1%, from +0.7% in the previous month) and of prices of Services related to communication (+1.4%, from -0.3% in July 2015).

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was 0.7% (down from +0.8% registered in July 2015); excluding energy, the inflation was stable at 0.8%.

The increase on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the rise of prices of Services related to transport (+2.9%) – on which seasonal factors had an impact – and to the rise of prices of Services related to communication (+1.8%); these increases were partially offset by the monthly decrease of prices of Non-regulated energy products (-2.5%).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was -0.4% (from -0.3% observed in July 2015) and the annual rate of change of prices of Services was +0.7% (down from +0.8% in the previous month). As consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods held steady with respect to July 2015.

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food increased by 0.1% on monthly basis and were stable at 0.7% on annual basis.

In August 2015 the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous month and rose by 0.4% on annual basis (the flash estimate was 0.5%), up from +0.3% registered in July 2015.

Core inflation measured by Italian HICP was 1.0%, up from 0.9% registered in the previous month; also excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the inflation was 1.0% (as in July 2015). Excluding energy, the inflation rose to 1.1%, up from 0.9% registered in July 2015.

In August 2015, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) declined by 0.2% compared with July 2015 and rose by 0.3% with respect to August 2014 (0.1 lower than HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rate – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes, occurred in the last twelve months –, after being zero for three consecutive months, returned positive. It should be noted that the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rate represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.

Date of next release: 30 September 2015