Consumer prices

In February 2015, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month and declined by 0.1% (flash estimate was equal to -0.2%) with respect to February 2014 (the annual rate was -0.6% in January 2015).

The lower decline on annual basis of the All items index was mainly due to the marked recovery of Fresh Vegetables prices (+10.8%, up from -1.7% in January 2015); other contributions derived from the speed-up of the annual growth of prices of Services related to transport (+1.4%, from +0.3% in the previous month), from the reversal of trend of Tobacco prices (+3.7%, from -0.4% in January 2015) and from the partial reduction of the annual decrease of prices of Non-regulated energy products (-12.8%, from -14.0% in the previous month).

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was 0.6% (up from +0.3% in the previous month); excluding energy, the inflation was 0.7% (0.4 higher than in January 2015).

The increase on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the rises of prices of Fresh vegetables (+7.8%) – on which seasonal factors had an impact – and of prices of Tobacco (+4.1%); a contribution also derived from the increase of prices of Services related to transport (+0.8%).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was -0.9% (from -1.5% observed in January 2015) and the annual rate of prices of Services was +0.8% (up from +0.5% in the previous month). As consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods decreased by 0.3 percentage points with respect to January 2015.

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food rose by 0.6% on monthly basis and by 0.7% on annual basis (in January 2015, the annual rate was equal to zero).

In February 2015, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) rose by 0.3% compared with the previous month and by 0.1% with respect to February 2014 (up from -0.5% in January 2015). Flash estimate was confirmed.

Core inflation measured by Italian HICP was 0.9%, up from 0.4% in January 2015; excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the inflation was 0.9% from 0.5% registered in the previous month. Excluding energy, the inflation was 1,0% (0.7 higher than in January 2015).

In February 2015, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) rose by 0.2% compared with January 2015 and held steady with respect to February 2014 (0.1 lower than HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rate – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes, occurred in the last twelve months –, after being zero for four consecutive months, returned positive. This is mainly due to the revision of the excise duties on tobacco products, introduced at the beginning of 2015, that displayed more widely their effects after the increase of prices of these products registered starting from second half of January. It should be noted that the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rate represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.

Next release: 31 March 2015