Consumer prices

In November 2014, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) declined by 0.2% compared with the previous month and rose by 0.2% with respect to November 2013 (0.1 higher than in October 2014). The flash estimate was confirmed.

The inflation registered a speed-up which was mainly due to the reversal of trend of Unprocessed food prices (+0.8%, from -0.2% in October 2014); to a lesser extent, contributions derived from other product typologies. This dynamics was partially offset by the widening of the annual decrease of prices of  Non-regulated energy products (-3.1%, from -2.2% in the previous month).

Excluding unprocessed food and energy, core inflation was stable at 0.5% whereas, excluding energy, the inflation was 0.6%, up from 0.4% in October 2014.

The decline on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the decrease of prices of Non-regulated energy products (-2.3%) and to the decline of prices – on which seasonal factors had an impact – of Services related to transport (-1.1%) and Services related to recreation, including repair and personal care (-0.8%). This decline was partially balanced by the monthly increases of prices of Fresh vegetables (+8.0%), Fresh fruit (+2.4%) and Services related to communication (+1.5%).

The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was -0.4% (from -0.3% observed in October 2014) and the annual rate of change of prices of Services was 0.9%, up from 0.7% registered in the previous month. As a consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods increased by 0.3 percentage points with respect to October 2014.

Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food rose by 0.5% on monthly basis and by 0.4% on annual basis (up from +0.1% in the previous month).

In November 2014, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) declined by 0.2% compared with the previous month and rose by 0.3% with respect to November 2013 (the flash estimate was +0.2%), showing an increase of 0.1 percentage points in the annual growth rate observed in October 2014 (+0.2%).

Core inflation measured by Italian HICP was stable at 0.5% and the inflation calculated excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was stable at 0.6%. Excluding energy, the inflation rose to 0.6% (from 0.4% in the previous month) instead.

In November 2014, the Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) declined by 0.3% compared with October 2014 and rose by 0.3% with respect to November 2013 (as the HICP). Therefore, as in October 2014, the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates – which incorporates the effects of changes in indirect taxes, occurred in the last twelve months – was zero. It should be noted that the difference between HICP and HICP-CT growth rates represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.